Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.383938 2.529148 2.688024 2.876707 3.097419 3.351115 3.670611
2025-09-07 2.243753 2.426655 2.636070 2.898608 3.226947 3.636609 4.210411
2025-09-14 2.087832 2.280515 2.506464 2.798273 3.177619 3.675535 4.424932
2025-09-21 2.005489 2.210708 2.456798 2.783855 3.225823 3.837766 4.837158
2025-09-28 1.920858 2.130505 2.385764 2.731860 3.212808 3.906116 5.115915
2025-10-05 1.895615 2.120421 2.400002 2.790042 3.354859 4.221536 5.912622
2025-10-12 1.884612 2.126297 2.433475 2.875120 3.544344 4.649359 7.150785
2025-10-19 1.838630 2.084265 2.400271 2.862482 3.581882 4.825443 7.951536
2025-10-26 1.803716 2.054504 2.381145 2.867498 3.646364 5.063226 9.122144
2025-11-02 1.749113 1.996430 2.320281 2.806266 3.594548 5.062915 9.559631
2025-11-09 1.712584 1.960786 2.288420 2.785952 3.608990 5.200750 10.671976
2025-11-16 1.680668 1.929977 2.261643 2.771179 3.630763 5.358964 12.156444
2025-11-23 1.648382 1.898705 2.234410 2.756456 3.655752 5.543223 14.377839
2025-11-30 1.629685 1.884809 2.230645 2.777359 3.746834 5.913032 19.940532
2025-12-07 1.578598 1.825198 2.159224 2.686646 3.619944 5.695583 18.761157
2025-12-14 1.553592 1.800572 2.137239 2.674072 3.640926 5.878536 24.389903
2025-12-21 1.519845 1.763005 2.095238 2.626933 3.590892 5.856278 27.209887
2025-12-28 1.516937 1.767727 2.114620 2.680635 3.744359 6.472457 183.488265
2026-01-04 1.520472 1.781336 2.147406 2.758738 3.960172 7.434155 NaN
2026-01-11 1.500207 1.760860 2.128483 2.747488 3.984044 7.733508 NaN
2026-01-18 1.485053 1.747163 2.119211 2.752304 4.044190 8.225571 NaN
2026-01-25 1.455330 1.712105 2.076529 2.696502 3.961007 8.047562 NaN
2026-02-01 1.436094 1.691600 2.055469 2.678044 3.962801 8.274193 NaN